2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds, picks, lineup: Model reveals predictions for Bristol, NASCAR Playoffs – CBS Sports

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The NASCAR Playoffs will continue on Saturday with the 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. The Bristol Night Race has been a tradition in the NASCAR Cup Series since 1961, and last season the stakes were raised when it became the cut race as the third postseason event. With the Round of 12 beginning next week, four drivers will be eliminated from title-contention, so we’re sure to see a battle when the green flag drops at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Kyle Busch is only eight points clear of the cutoff, but he’s an eight-time winner on the steeply-banked 0.533-mile oval. Busch is a 5-1 co-favorite along with Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin in the latest 2021 Bristol Night Race odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Chase Elliott (7-1), Brad Keselowski (17-2) and Kevin Harvick (17-2) are also near the top of the 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds. Before scouring the 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race starting lineup and making any NASCAR at Bristol predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Bristol Night Race picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick’s win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.
At the Brickyard, the model called Harvick’s fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.
In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. It also called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout and then correctly predicted the top five drivers at Watkins Glen before nailing at least seven of the top 10 in each of the last two weeks. Anyone who has followed its lead on those plays has seen huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2021 Bristol Night Race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race leaderboard.
One surprise: the model is high on Martin Truex Jr., even though he’s a 15-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Bristol odds 2021. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After winning the 2017 NASCAR Cup Series championship and finishing as the runner-up in 2018 and 2019, Truex only won once in 2020 and ran a disappointing seventh in the standings.
However, Truex has captured four wins already in 2021 and enters Saturday sitting third in the standings following a win last week at Richmond. Truex has been a staple near the front of the leaderboard throughout the season, leading in 15 of the 28 races thus far for a total of 775 laps. While he hasn’t run strong historically at Bristol, he led 52 laps in the night race in 2019 and was the runner-up under the lights in 2011.
And a massive shocker: Chase Elliot, one of the Vegas favorites at 7-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Bristol Night Race starting lineup. Elliott is currently seventh in the standings and still close enough to the 13th-place bubble (19 points) that he needs to stay on the track on Saturday night.
That shouldn’t be a problem for Elliott, but he has never won in 10 starts on the pavement at Bristol Motor Speedway and has also finished outside the top 10 in five of those starts. The defending NASCAR Cup Series champion hasn’t won anywhere but a road course this season and is priced too steeply for Saturday night’s action.
The model is also targeting one other driver with 2021 Bristol Night Race odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. It also sees value in a massive triple-digit long shot. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2021 Bristol Night Race? And which massive triple-digit long shot is a shocking value? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Bristol odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race leaderboard, all from the model that has called several race winners this season and predicted at least seven of the top 10 the last two weeks
Kyle Larson 5-1
Kyle Busch 5-1
Denny Hamlin 5-1
Chase Elliott 7-1
Kevin Harvick 17-2
Brad Keselowski 17-2
Joey Logano 10-1
Ryan Blaney 10-1
Martin Truex Jr. 15-1
Kurt Busch 18-1
Alex Bowman 20-1
William Byron 20-1
Christopher Bell 28-1
Ross Chastain 40-1
Tyler Reddick 40-1
Aric Almirola 40-1
Austin Dillon 60-1
Matt DiBenedetto 60-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-1
Bubba Wallace 100-1
Daniel Suarez 125-1
Ryan Newman 150-1
Cole Custer 150-1
Chris Buescher 250-1
Erik Jones 300-1
Chase Briscoe 300-1
Michael McDowell 500-1
Ryan Preece 750-1
Corey Lajoie 2500-1
Justin Haley 2500-1
Anthony Alfredo 2500-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
David Starr 5000-1
James Davison 5000-1
B.J. McLeod 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
J.J. Yeley 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
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